Rookie Running Back Cheat Sheet Part 1

Introduction

What is up FrontPage Posse, we are back with another article to satisfy your off-season NFL cravings. The NFL off-season is a whirlwind of information, rumors, and roster changes making it hard to know where to start. In terms of fantasy relevance, it’s probably most important to familiarize yourself with the incoming rookie draft class – especially the RB group. The 2019 rookie RB draft class can be defined as a number of B to B+ running backs. There weren’t any clear standouts, like Saquon Barkley last year, but there were a number of excellent running backs selected in the 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th rounds that could all be relevant this season. My analysis comes from watching actual film of these players, and referring to professional scouting sources to ensure I was able to provide the most accurate descriptions as possible. The Rookie RB Cheat Sheet will be broken up into two parts since there are so many prospects to discuss.

Analysis: I view every running back through the lenses of talent and opportunity, and I tend to favor opportunity over talent in most cases. The rare symbiosis of highly talented backs with ample opportunity is where true bell cows are born (ie Gurley, McCaffrey, Zeke, etc.)

Josh Jacobs (Alabama; Drafted by Raiders 1^st round) – NFL Comparison: Arian Foster

If you’re going to take the time to checkout Josh Jacob's film, be sure to watch Arian Foster’s either right before or shortly after watching Jacob’s. It really is uncanny how similar these two guys are in terms of running style, athletic metrics, etc. Josh Jacobs is a do-it-all running back that can easily carry a 3-down role in the Raider’s offense. He isn’t the fastest guy with 4.6 40 time, but I watched him break multiple long runs and he was even tasked with returning kickoffs for Saban. Jacobs actively seeks contact with defenders, is an excellent between the tackles runner with speed to bounce it outside, and has underrated hands. His film is littered with hands catches on swing routes, deep skinny post touchdowns, and major YAC ability. The Raiders were able to make Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch a borderline RB1 for a stretch of last season with minimal pass catching. Josh Jacobs could easily see 15+ carries and 3-5 catches a game with unlimited goal line work. The more I think about the Raiders the more I think that offense is being undervalued due to recency bias against Derek Carr. This lack of hype will all but vanish due to the Raiders being featured on HardKnocks during the off-season which always ruins fantasy value.  

Bell Cow Potential: 9/10

David Montgomery (Iowa State; Drafted by Bears in 3^rd round) – NFL Comparison: Carlos Hyde

David Montgomery is the exact running back you want a franchise to draft if your other running backs are Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis. In fact, the Bears traded up 14 spots in the 3^rd to get their guy, so it goes to show just how highly the Bears viewed him predraft. He is a slow but aggressive runner with some of the best contact balance in the draft class – if not the best. He should be an excellent between the tackles runner, elusive in tight spaces, and has the tenacity to the find the end zone on goal-to-go situations. Montgomery could have a few multi-touchdown games for all the goal line work he could see. Surprisingly, he has excellent hands for the type of player he stats out to be. He lined up out wide, in the slot, and ran well in swing/screen pass situations. With that being said, he was getting gang tackled 15-20 yards down field at the college level. I really can’t see Montgomery breaking off runs longer than 15 yards in the NFL unless he has free real estate ahead of him. I also have my concerns with how much Mike Davis could eat into his workload. As talented as David Montgomery is, I do think Mike Davis is worthy of a decent percentage of that backfield, and Matt Nagy isn’t the type of coach to over emphasize single players in his offense. The talent is there, but the opportunity is in question.

Bell Cow Potential: 7/10

Miles Sanders (Penn State; Drafted by the Eagles 2^nd round) NFL Comparison – LeSean McCoy

I turned on Sander’s film and didn’t blink for an hour. This guy is so much fun to watch because of how he runs. He reminds me a lot of Shady McCoy and Leveon Bell in terms of his shiftiness, patient running, and speed combinations he uses against all 3 levels of a defense. Much like Lev Bell, he looks like he’s running half speed most of the time until he needs to burst to hit a gap, cut past a defender, or setup his blocks. Here is a powerful quote from a respected scouting website:

“Can drop his hips low and jump cut to anywhere the eye can see. Works unorthodox footwork and angles into surprising redirections that catch defenders out of position. Has super silky hips that allow him to weave and slice when working with clean runways to the second level…” https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/miles-sanders

If Sanders was a 2-3 year starter, and didn’t sit behind Saquon Barkley at Penn State, he would be the top RB prospect out of this class. He didn’t have a lot of receptions at Penn State, but he lined up in the slot and ran a variety of routes. Some of his downfalls include a lack of power, lack of a killer instinct (decision-making), slightly above average contact balance, and poor pass protection. His lapses in decision-making usually manifest themselves as 5+ yard losses for trying to do too much behind the line of scrimmage. Offensive coordinators hate this, so he’ll have to learn to take what is given to him in the NFL. The power and contact balance are largely due to his size, but his vision, burst, and shiftiness easily compensate for that. As for pass pro and killer instinct, I believe this is purely a result of limited playing time as he was a one-year starter. Fortunately, pass protection and decision-making can be developed with more reps.

Bell Cow Potential 8/10

He’s currently injured with a hamstring strain, and Doug Pederson seems content with running Jordan Howard into the ground this year on his one-year contract. I’d let this story develop further before going all in on Sanders this year, but in dynasty he’s a must grab.

Justice Hill (Oklahoma State; Drafted by the Ravens 4^th round) NFL Comparison – Reggie Bush

That is correct; you read that right. This guy comps out to Reggie Bush, and after watching the tape I’m buying it. Justice Hill had the fastest official 40-yard dash time for a RB at the NFL draft with 4.40 (Darrell Henderson had unofficial of 4.36 & 4.49 official). The Ravens continued to add speed around Lamar Jackson with the Hill selection, and he should be the perfect compliment to the bruiser backs of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. Hill could be an absolute matchup nightmare on read-options, swings, draws, outside zone runs, and screens. The hype train hasn’t quite caught on for Justice Hill yet, but I guarantee that as the season approaches and the world sees him play in preseason games, his ADP will spike tremendously. Justice Hill isn’t the type of running back to command a 3-down role in the NFL, but he could have fantasy relevance regardless. Although I’ve highlighted Hill’s speed, I don’t want to give the wrong impression. Justice Hill is a complete RB who had back-to-back 1000-yard rushing seasons at Oklahoma State, and has excellent technique, balance, and vision. He can catch out of the backfield and he is good at pass protection for his size. He is going to demand time on the field for the Ravens despite how well Ingram plays. Hill is an explosive play-maker who I’m currently grabbing everywhere I can, but with that being said, I don’t think he is bell cow material. The Ravens won’t be giving him 15+ touches in their style of offense, but his efficiency should allow him to produce with limited touches.

Bell Cow Potential 4/10

Conclusion:

I leave you with Justice Hill highlights as the conclusion to get the hype train rolling!! DON'T SLEEP ON THIS MAN!

QB Purgatory

QB Purgatory

Introduction

“Every day is a new day, and you'll never be able to find happiness if you don't move on.” – Carrie Underwood

A great quote from a great singer, Carrie Underwood.  Thankfully, NFL GMs don’t listen to Carrie Underwood, so I get to write about one of my favorite NFL theories, “QB Purgatory”. 

I am referring to NFL organizations locking into average to below average QBs and being trapped for what some fans might consider an eternity.  I believe the WORST thing is to sign an average QB to a long-term lucrative contract.

Patient 0

This idea of QB Purgatory can be traced back to one signing in particular.  After Ravens winning the Super Bowl in 2013, they decided to give Joe Flacco a 6-year $120 million contract.  This contract paid him $20 million per year and represented 16.3% of his teams yearly cap.  That means the other 52 players would have to fight for the remaining 83%.  Flacco’s average yearly stats since signing his massive contract is 62.61% completion, 18.3 TDs, 13.3 INTs, 3,435 Yds, and a sad 6.49 YPA.  For context, last year in just 11 games, Carson Wentz’s stat line was 69.6% completion, 21 TDs, 7 INTs, 3,074 Yds, and a 7.7 YPA. 

“But wait! How could the Ravens of known Joe Flacco was just an average QB after winning a Super Bowl!” 

Well here is Joe Flacco’s average yearly stats during his entire 11-year career: 61.7%, 19.2 TDs, 12.3 INTs, 3,476 Yds, and a 6.74 YPA.  Joe Flacco is who we all thought he was.  A QB who was destined for mediocrity. Ravens got caught up in the tough decision that teams continue to make.  Loyalty and recency bias fueled their thought process.  Ravens were 42-41 from the time Joe Flacco received his contract until they made the transition to Lamar Jackson in 2018.  Baltimore could have saved so many wasted years if they chose a different path with Mr. Elite. 

QB Problems

My point I am trying to make is there is an inefficient market for QBs and the average to below average QBs are capitalizing on this inefficiency.  I completely understand that QBs are the most important player on the field and should get compensated for that.  However, this is what has led to QB Purgatory.  Teams willing to make every QB up for a contract renewal the next highest paid player in the league.  It doesn’t make any sense.  This QB Purgatory is essentially more damaging to a franchise than simply drafting a terrible QB who is out of the league in 2 years.  At least when you have the terrible QB, you know that he is terrible.  The team can move on quickly and most likely will have a high draft pick to replace him with.  QB Purgatory can last 5+ years until things start to change.    

There are two main issues that arise from entering QB Purgatory:

1. QB Poor: Teams are rewarding these average QBs with massive contracts that effects how the team can allocate their cap to other positions.  When your QB makes up 16% of your salary cap, you are somewhat limited to what you can do.  The Raiders just had an issue last year with signing the best pass rusher in football, Khalil Mack.  Sure, they probably could have found some wiggle room in the cap space to sign Mack, but because Derek Carr made up 14% of the cap space last year it made things a little more difficult.  Instead of being house poor, teams are QB poor.  They can’t fill other positions with quality talent because they are paying their shiny new QB too much money.  However, if their QB was a superior talent (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Luck, Wentz, Watson, Etc.) then they could make up for the talent deficiencies at other positions.  At one-point last year Andrew Luck threw for 300+ yards & 4 TDs when his leading WRs were Zach Pascal, Chester Rogers, and Mo Ali Cox!  That is a QB who you should be spending your money on.      
    
2. QB Anchored: Teams are anchored to these QBs for years and years to come.  If the contract is back loaded, then chances are the team won’t move on from the player until the last two years of the contract which could be 4-5 years of subpar QB play.  Not only are they financially anchored but they are also egotistically & psychologically anchored.  GMs don’t want people to know that they handed out a $100 million contract and it was a mistake.  If you are paying someone that kind of money you better be right, and that thinking can compound the bad decision making.  To be fair the GMs job is on the line, but this structure is causing a lot of poor decisions.  When you can’t make a rational decision because you are scared you may lose your job then that is a flaw in the employee/employer relationship. 

Conclusion

Here are a few solutions to never enter the dreaded space of QB Purgatory. 

1. Do not sign rookie QBs to extensions until their last year on their rookie contracts (5^th year for 1^st round picks and 4^th year for every other pick).  Some QBs may hold out early in order to get a contract, well that’s too bad.  Do not give in and get stuck for years to come.  Holding off allows you to get everything you may need to make a decision on making this QB your team’s future. 
2. Reset the QB market.  There needs to be a change in the QB market for subpar QBs.  Take Marcus Mariota for example.  The Titans have certainly not seen enough to make a long-term commitment in Mariota.  He has been far too inefficient and injured to hand out $125 million.  Instead I would recommend a team friendly contract such as: a one year prove it deal; a long-term contract with little guaranteed money; a contract with heavy incentives baked into it instead of guarantees; or simply release the guy. 

Of course, you want to find your franchise QB and sign him to a long-term contract but that doesn’t mean every QB that walks through your door should be that guy.  Carrie Underwood says it best, sometimes it’s just time to move on.