NFL Mock Draft Recap 2019

Mock Draft Recap Part 1

Joey Tow

The 2019 NFL Draft is a little over 1 month complete at this point and I thought it would be a good time to share my mock vs. actual picks.  Based on The Huddle Report scoring metric, I scored a 41 on my mock draft.  For context, the below are some well known football analysts: 

• Ben Standig - NBC Sports Washington (Score 48 - Most Accurate)
• Evan Silva - Rotoworld (Score 46 - 2018 Most Accurate)
• Daniel Jeremiah - NFL Network (Score 43)
• Lance Zierlein - NFL.com (Score 41)
• Josh Norris - Rotoworld (Score 39)

Scores are determined by players predicted in the first round (1 point) and players matched correctly to teams (2 points).  

Note on my grades: The grades I give are a little different than the usual football analyst grades.  I am not giving a grade on the pick based on the players skill.  No one knows if these players are going to be good so it is silly to grade them that way at this point.  My grades are based on the process/fit/need.  For example, Raiders selecting Clelin Ferrell received a poor grade because it was seen as a reach by many.

PICKS 1-16

1.       Arizona Cardinals – Grade A

My Pick: Kyler Murray – QB Oklahoma

Actual Pick: Kyler Murray – QB Oklahoma

I think this pick was locked in since the combine.  I have no issue with Rosen and I think he will probably end up starting for the Dolphins some point this year but if you believe Kyler is special (I do) then you suck it up and take the pick.  This offense is going to be a lot of fun to watch this year.  From a fantasy perspective, this is probably the first time in my career where I will be actively drafting a rookie QB in all formats. 

2.       San Francisco 49ers – Grade B+

My Pick: Nick Bosa – DE Ohio State

Actual: Nick Bosa – DE Ohio State

I think this was another pick that had been locked in for quite some time.  Deforrest Buckner was the 49ers only pass rushing threat last year, so they needed to address the pass rush in a big way this year.  Now they have Dee Ford and Nick Bosa coming off the edge with Buckner up the middle.  The 49ers weakness just became a strength. 

3.       New York Jets – Grade C+

My Pick: TRADE W/ NYG – Quinnen Williams – DT Alabama

Actual: Quinnen Williams – DT Alabama

I got the player right but with the wrong team here.  I thought Dave Gettelman couldn’t resist grabbing the most talented DT in the draft and nab his “hog mollie” but I was wrong.  As for the Jets pick, I actually don’t necessarily agree with the pick here.  I definitely tilt towards selecting the best available player, however, I felt the Jets had some other holes that needed addressing that could have been addressed with this pick.  Josh Allen made more sense to me since the Jets haven’t had a pure OLB since the Reagan Administration.  I think Williams is going to be a great player but I think the Jets could have executed the pick better.  I actually would have preferred them to trade down and select an offensive lineman to protect their future, Sam Darnold. 

4.       Oakland Raiders – Grade D

My Pick: Ed Oliver – DT Houston

Actual: Clelin Ferrell – EDGE Clemson

This is the first post I will be posting so now is a good time to let the readers now that I am sadly a member of the Raider nation and because of this I am allowed to be extra harsh.  This was the first time in a while that I thought my Raiders couldn’t mess up a draft.  They had THREE first round picks, so they had to at least get one good pick out of the three.  I am no math genius but three picks are much better than one.  Then the Raiders announced they picked Clelin Ferrell at pick 4.  To be fair, I have nothing against Ferrell, however, this was undoubtably a reach.  If they wanted Ferrell that would have been fine but please trade down.  I can understand GMs/Coaches falling in love with players, but I cannot and will not get behind those GMs/Coaches losing out on draft value.  Even if they traded down two slots and got an extra 5^th round pick that would have been a win.  At least they keep me on my toes (said while rolling my eyes).  Ferrell does fit a huge need for the Raiders though after trading away Khalil Mack last year (don’t get me started).  The Raiders finished last in sacks so Ferrell will contribute day one.

5.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Grade C+

My Pick: Devin White – LB LSU

Actual: Devin White – LB LSU

I am not patting myself on the back for this pick as everyone who completed a mock draft had White at No. 5 to the Bucs.  I believe Devin White will probably win the DROY and be an immediate threat on the defense, however, the ILB position is a devalued position and I would have liked to of seen this used on a higher priority position.  On a side note, I believe the Bucs have a good shot of having the worst defense in the league even after adding White.

6.       New York Giants – Grade C

My Pick: TRADE W/ NYJ Josh Allen – EDGE Kentucky

Actual: Daniel Jones – Duke

I had Jones going to the Giants, but I had him going there with their second pick in the first round.  I am totally on board of getting rid of Eli #notmyQB but I am getting a pretty clear picture that Daniel Jones is not going to be a good QB.  Regardless of Daniel Jones, the Giants had the perfect opportunity to draft Sam Darnold last year and restart their franchise.  Instead they draft the largest quads in the league and continue to say that Eli has a ton left in the tank.  Then they draft a QB with the 6^th pick this year.  To be honest the Giants management decisions make little sense to me and this is the one team that makes me happy to be a Raiders fan (sorry Giants fans).  This grade isn’t an F because they need a QB and it isn’t an A because they totally mismanaged this situation.

7.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Grade B

My Pick: Jawaan Taylor – OT Florida

Actual: Josh Allen – EDGE Kentucky

The Jags capitalize on Josh Allen falling to No. 7.  This pick has started to make more sense as Telvin Smith has stepped away from football.  The Jags add to their already stacked defensive front.  I would have liked to of seen them add to their offensive line, but they ended up drafting Taylor in the 2^nd round so that works too. 

8.       Detroit Lions – Grade B-

My Pick: TRADE W/ WAS – Dwayne Haskins – QB Ohio State

Actual: TJ Hockenson – TE Iowa

Usually, teams have to trade up to grab their QB so I thought the Lions would have been a good trade partners for the Redskins, however, that was not the case.  The Lions add the best TE in the class and one of the best prospects in recent memory.  The 8^th pick is pretty high for a TE, but the Lions do have a major need with recently signed Jesse James as their TE1 before they added TJ.  With Golden Tate now gone there is a major need for a middle of the field threat and I believe TJ will fill that void. 

9.       Buffalo Bills – Grade A

My Pick: Jonah Williams – OT Alabama

Actual: Ed Oliver – DT Houston

I slotted an OT here to invest in protecting the biggest arm in the league.  But if I knew Ed Oliver was going to still be on the board than I would have certainly slotted him in here.  This pick makes so much sense.  It fills a major void and is great value in my opinion.  I thought Oliver was going to go as high as No. 3 so to grab him at No. 9 seems like a steal.   I think this was one of the best picks of the first round. 

10.   Pittsburg Steelers – Grade C

My Pick: Denver Broncos - Devin Bush – LB Michigan

Actual: TRADE W/ PIT – Devin Bush – LB Michigan

There were rumors that the Steelers were very interested in one of the top LBs in this draft, but it was going to be hard for them to select one without aggressively moving up and it turns out they did aggressively move up.  The Steelers have missed Shazier a lot so the pick does make sense but I think moving up 10 picks in the first round for an ILB is not the correct thought process.  My analysis on this pick is similar to the Bucs selecting Devin White.  Great player, great fit, but not great value. 

11.   Cincinnati Bengals – Grade B

My Pick: Cody Ford – OL Oklahoma

Actual: Jonah Williams – OT Alabama

I truly thought the Bengals should have selected Dwayne Haskins here, but the rumors suggested OL was the pick here.  I think we have seen enough of the Red Rifle to know he should be kept in a safe and not used (tried to think of a better joke).  I think Andy Dalton is serviceable, but you don’t want serviceable.  Andy Dalton’s cap situation allows for the Bengals to move on from him after this year with no dead cap.  I think there are good odds that this is his last year in Cincy.  I am a fan of the Jonah Williams pick though.  The Bengals line has been atrocious the last few years and Jonah Williams brings versatility to that offensive line.  Not quite sure where he is going to play yet but regardless, he will start week one and help that line. 

12.   Green Bay Packers – Grade B-

My Pick: TJ Hockenson – TE Iowa

Actual: Rashaan Gary – DE Michigan

This was probably seen as a surprise pick by most, myself included.  I thought the Packers could have gone so many ways here, but a defensive lineman was not one of them.  However, this pick continues to solidify that defensive front which has the opportunity to be the best in the league.  Mike Daniels, Rashaan Gary, Kenny Clark, Za’Darius Smith, and Preston Smith is one heck of defensive front.  I think the Packers had a greater need at OL or TE, but Gary slipped here and the Pack took advantage.  This is probably the best defense the Packers have had since their last Super Bowl run so look out for them this year.  I do have to knock them down a little after watching Aaron Rodgers beer chugging abilities.   

13.   Miami Dolphins – Grade C

My Pick: TRADE W/ HOU – Andre Dillard – OT Wash. St.

Actual: Christian Wilkins – DT Clemons

I absolutely love what the Dolphins have been doing this off season.  Dolphins have been doing everything to maximize their chances at a successful rebuild.  From giving away players and still offering to pay part of their salary this year is fantastic.  Yes – the Dolphins are going to be very bad this year.  Most certainly will get a top 5 pick next year and my favorite to get the first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft.  I thought the Dolphins would try and trade back here and a perfect partner would have been the Houston Texans who was in dire need of a LT.  In fact, this is what the Texans should have done as they got sniped by the Eagles for Andre Dillard.  Miami has holes at just about every position so they could have gone in any direction here.  Since they didn’t trade down, and they are in rebuild mode their grade reflects that.   

14.   Atlanta Falcons – Grade B

My Pick: Brian Burns – EDGE Florida St.

Actual: Chris Lindstrom – OG Boston College

Even though I thought a pass rusher was more of a need, this pick makes sense.  Matty Ice is significantly worse when pressured.  When his line is healthy though I think Matt Ryan can perform at the highest tier of QB play.  The Falcons might have been one of the most injured teams last year and it showed.  This pick should help solidify that offensive line and really propel this offense even further. 

15.   Washington Redskins – Grade A

My Pick: TRADE W/ DET – Noah Fant – TE Iowa

Actual: Dwayne Haskins – QB Ohio State.

Matched the team to player but thought the Redskins would have to trade up to get their QB.  Turns out those Dan Snyder rumors about taking over the draft pick were actually true.  I am no QB savant, but I am guessing Dwayne Haskins is going to be better than Case Keenum and Colt McCoy (who btw the Redskins completely mismanaged his leg injury).  I think Haskins is much better than Jones and am surprised he fell this far.  I believe Haskins will start week 1 and finally start to turn this franchise around.  Great value for their QB of the future. 

16.   Carolina Panthers – Grade B

My Pick: Montez Sweat – DE Miss. St.

Actual: Brian Burns – EDGE Florida St.

Panthers had to address their outside pass rusher position.  Before this pick their best outside rusher was probably 1-year rental Bruce Irvin.  I have no issue with selecting Brian Burns over Montez Sweat.  Brian Burns was actually slotted to go a little higher by consensus, so it seems like the Panthers got nice value here.