QB Purgatory

QB Purgatory

Introduction

“Every day is a new day, and you'll never be able to find happiness if you don't move on.” – Carrie Underwood

A great quote from a great singer, Carrie Underwood.  Thankfully, NFL GMs don’t listen to Carrie Underwood, so I get to write about one of my favorite NFL theories, “QB Purgatory”. 

I am referring to NFL organizations locking into average to below average QBs and being trapped for what some fans might consider an eternity.  I believe the WORST thing is to sign an average QB to a long-term lucrative contract.

Patient 0

This idea of QB Purgatory can be traced back to one signing in particular.  After Ravens winning the Super Bowl in 2013, they decided to give Joe Flacco a 6-year $120 million contract.  This contract paid him $20 million per year and represented 16.3% of his teams yearly cap.  That means the other 52 players would have to fight for the remaining 83%.  Flacco’s average yearly stats since signing his massive contract is 62.61% completion, 18.3 TDs, 13.3 INTs, 3,435 Yds, and a sad 6.49 YPA.  For context, last year in just 11 games, Carson Wentz’s stat line was 69.6% completion, 21 TDs, 7 INTs, 3,074 Yds, and a 7.7 YPA. 

“But wait! How could the Ravens of known Joe Flacco was just an average QB after winning a Super Bowl!” 

Well here is Joe Flacco’s average yearly stats during his entire 11-year career: 61.7%, 19.2 TDs, 12.3 INTs, 3,476 Yds, and a 6.74 YPA.  Joe Flacco is who we all thought he was.  A QB who was destined for mediocrity. Ravens got caught up in the tough decision that teams continue to make.  Loyalty and recency bias fueled their thought process.  Ravens were 42-41 from the time Joe Flacco received his contract until they made the transition to Lamar Jackson in 2018.  Baltimore could have saved so many wasted years if they chose a different path with Mr. Elite. 

QB Problems

My point I am trying to make is there is an inefficient market for QBs and the average to below average QBs are capitalizing on this inefficiency.  I completely understand that QBs are the most important player on the field and should get compensated for that.  However, this is what has led to QB Purgatory.  Teams willing to make every QB up for a contract renewal the next highest paid player in the league.  It doesn’t make any sense.  This QB Purgatory is essentially more damaging to a franchise than simply drafting a terrible QB who is out of the league in 2 years.  At least when you have the terrible QB, you know that he is terrible.  The team can move on quickly and most likely will have a high draft pick to replace him with.  QB Purgatory can last 5+ years until things start to change.    

There are two main issues that arise from entering QB Purgatory:

1. QB Poor: Teams are rewarding these average QBs with massive contracts that effects how the team can allocate their cap to other positions.  When your QB makes up 16% of your salary cap, you are somewhat limited to what you can do.  The Raiders just had an issue last year with signing the best pass rusher in football, Khalil Mack.  Sure, they probably could have found some wiggle room in the cap space to sign Mack, but because Derek Carr made up 14% of the cap space last year it made things a little more difficult.  Instead of being house poor, teams are QB poor.  They can’t fill other positions with quality talent because they are paying their shiny new QB too much money.  However, if their QB was a superior talent (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Luck, Wentz, Watson, Etc.) then they could make up for the talent deficiencies at other positions.  At one-point last year Andrew Luck threw for 300+ yards & 4 TDs when his leading WRs were Zach Pascal, Chester Rogers, and Mo Ali Cox!  That is a QB who you should be spending your money on.      
    
2. QB Anchored: Teams are anchored to these QBs for years and years to come.  If the contract is back loaded, then chances are the team won’t move on from the player until the last two years of the contract which could be 4-5 years of subpar QB play.  Not only are they financially anchored but they are also egotistically & psychologically anchored.  GMs don’t want people to know that they handed out a $100 million contract and it was a mistake.  If you are paying someone that kind of money you better be right, and that thinking can compound the bad decision making.  To be fair the GMs job is on the line, but this structure is causing a lot of poor decisions.  When you can’t make a rational decision because you are scared you may lose your job then that is a flaw in the employee/employer relationship. 

Conclusion

Here are a few solutions to never enter the dreaded space of QB Purgatory. 

1. Do not sign rookie QBs to extensions until their last year on their rookie contracts (5^th year for 1^st round picks and 4^th year for every other pick).  Some QBs may hold out early in order to get a contract, well that’s too bad.  Do not give in and get stuck for years to come.  Holding off allows you to get everything you may need to make a decision on making this QB your team’s future. 
2. Reset the QB market.  There needs to be a change in the QB market for subpar QBs.  Take Marcus Mariota for example.  The Titans have certainly not seen enough to make a long-term commitment in Mariota.  He has been far too inefficient and injured to hand out $125 million.  Instead I would recommend a team friendly contract such as: a one year prove it deal; a long-term contract with little guaranteed money; a contract with heavy incentives baked into it instead of guarantees; or simply release the guy. 

Of course, you want to find your franchise QB and sign him to a long-term contract but that doesn’t mean every QB that walks through your door should be that guy.  Carrie Underwood says it best, sometimes it’s just time to move on.