 |
| Image - BroBible |
If you're reading this post in June you don't need me to tell you how pricey the top tier tight ends are. The introduction of the move and pass catching tight ends has changed the way fantasy, and the NFL, value the position. The gap between the top tier and decent tight ends is widening, and the effects of that were felt by many last season (myself included). Home leagues and casual fantasy drafters are going to compensate for this by dramatically overpaying for Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz in that order. If you're taking one of those three then this article isn't for you.
Analysis: When waiting on TE it is important to be cognizant of your quarterback situation as well as bench/flex depth. If you ask any fantasy football expert they will tell you that fantasy drafts are won, and ultimately lost, in rounds 5-16. With this in mind, it is generally not a good idea to draft QB and TE in back-to-back rounds unless the value is too good to pass up. Drafting non-skill positions in concurrent rounds will leave you in a really tight spot that is hard to draft out of in later rounds.
"If you ask any fantasy football expert they will tell you that fantasy football drafts are won, and ultimately lost, in rounds 5-16." @FrontPage_ff
With the way drafts are currently going, there is a tight end or two being drafted in every round between 5 and 10. I will list which tight ends you should be targeting based on value, and the quarterback combinations you can look to pair that TE with. The ideology here is that if you spend early on a TE it's favorable to wait on QB and vice versa. (All ADP based on fantasyfootballcalculator.com)
Evan Engram - ADP 6.04 - QB Pairing - Dak Prescott - ADP 12.10
This feels blasphemes to pair a New York Giant and a Dallas Cowboy, but I love the value and upside both of these guys provide. Engram has been a monster without OBJ on the field (62.4 yards/game, 8.2 targets/game, and 13.8 ppr points/game), and is poised to hit the famous 3rd year spike like most TE and WR do. I'm projecting Sterling Shepard and Engram to account for vertical targets as well as intermediate, but Engram will see the majority of targets in the red zone and 10 yard zone. Keep in mind Engram had 722 yards and 7 TD in his rookie campaign in 2017 when OBJ broke his ankle. I rate Prescott highly this year, but I will save his breakdown for a future blog.
Vance McDonald - ADP 7.07 - QB Pairing - Josh Allen ADP 11.02
With Antonio Brown out of the lineup, there are an extra 200 targets to go around the Steeler's offense. JuJu Smith-Schuster can't see many more targets than he already did last year which means its up to James Washington, Donte Moncrief, and Vance McDonald to makeup for the loss of AB. Donte Moncrief is a big play specialist that will have his role, but he won't be a high volume receiver. Did you know that Vance McDonald had 73 targets in 2018 and finished as TE 10? With AB and Jesse James out of the picture I can't project him to finish any worse than 10.
Jimmy Graham - ADP 13.09 - QB Pairing - Aaron Rodgers ADP 5.05
"But you're not supposed to draft a QB early!" Stop it; it's Aaron Rodgers. If you were lucky enough to have Jimmy Graham on your fantasy team two seasons ago you know that all he did was score touchdowns for Seattle (10 TDs). It's not unrealistic to expect that type of production from Graham this year, and here is why. Red Zone efficiency for a player of Graham's age and mobility is dependent on good quarterback play, and timing, to take advantage of small throwing lanes and his body size. We have seen nearly every single first year receiver struggle with Aaron Rodgers including Devante Adams. With a second off-season together, I am projecting Graham and Rodgers to cement that red zone chemistry with double digit touchdown upside. This favorable projection of Graham is more a reflection of how many touchdowns I am projecting for Aaron Rodgers this year. I believe Graham will be a beneficiary.
Bonus: Kyle Rudolph - Undrafted - Linked with trade to Patriots or Cowboys.
Conclusion:
Paying up for tight end this year is going to be a challenge. If you construct your rosters like mine then finding value in rounds 5-16 is a must. Drafting a late round TE requires careful consideration to balance the rest of your roster, and this is especially true for quarterback. To dominate your league this year pair a mid round TE (6-9) with a late QB (11-13).
Where are you drafting tight end this year? Comment below.
No comments:
Post a Comment