Introduction
What is up FrontPage Posse, we are back with another article
to satisfy your off-season NFL cravings. The NFL off-season is a whirlwind of
information, rumors, and roster changes making it hard to know where to start.
In terms of fantasy relevance, it’s probably most important to familiarize
yourself with the incoming rookie draft class – especially the RB group. The
2019 rookie RB draft class can be defined as a number of B to B+ running backs.
There weren’t any clear standouts, like Saquon Barkley last year, but there
were a number of excellent running backs selected in the 2nd, 3rd,
and 4th rounds that could all be relevant this season. My analysis
comes from watching actual film of these players, and referring to professional
scouting sources to ensure I was able to provide the most accurate descriptions as possible. The Rookie RB Cheat Sheet will be broken up into two parts since
there are so many prospects to discuss.
Analysis: I view every running back through the
lenses of talent and opportunity, and I tend to favor opportunity over talent
in most cases. The rare symbiosis of highly talented backs with ample opportunity is where true bell cows are born (ie Gurley, McCaffrey, Zeke, etc.)
Josh Jacobs (Alabama; Drafted by Raiders 1st
round) – NFL Comparison: Arian Foster
If you’re going to take the time to checkout Josh Jacob's
film, be sure to watch Arian Foster’s either right before or shortly after
watching Jacob’s. It really is uncanny how similar these two guys are in terms
of running style, athletic metrics, etc. Josh Jacobs is a do-it-all running
back that can easily carry a 3-down role in the Raider’s offense. He isn’t the
fastest guy with 4.6 40 time, but I watched him break multiple long runs and he
was even tasked with returning kickoffs for Saban. Jacobs actively seeks
contact with defenders, is an excellent between the tackles runner with speed
to bounce it outside, and has underrated hands. His film is littered with hands
catches on swing routes, deep skinny post touchdowns, and major YAC ability. The Raiders were able to make Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch a borderline RB1 for a stretch of last season with minimal pass catching. Josh Jacobs could easily see 15+ carries and 3-5 catches a game with unlimited goal line work. The more I think about the Raiders the more I think that offense is being undervalued due to recency bias against Derek Carr. This lack of hype will all but vanish due to the Raiders being featured on HardKnocks during the off-season which always ruins fantasy value.
Bell Cow Potential: 9/10
David Montgomery (Iowa State; Drafted by Bears in 3rd
round) – NFL Comparison: Carlos Hyde
David Montgomery is the exact running back you want a
franchise to draft if your other running backs are Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis. In
fact, the Bears traded up 14 spots in the 3rd to get their guy, so
it goes to show just how highly the Bears viewed him predraft. He is a slow but
aggressive runner with some of the best contact balance in the draft class – if
not the best. He should be an excellent between the tackles runner, elusive in
tight spaces, and has the tenacity to the find the end zone on goal-to-go situations.
Montgomery could have a few multi-touchdown games for all the goal line work he
could see. Surprisingly, he has excellent hands for the type of player he stats
out to be. He lined up out wide, in the slot, and ran well in swing/screen pass
situations. With that being said, he was getting gang tackled 15-20 yards down
field at the college level. I really can’t see Montgomery breaking off runs
longer than 15 yards in the NFL unless he has free real estate ahead of him. I
also have my concerns with how much Mike Davis could eat into his workload. As
talented as David Montgomery is, I do think Mike Davis is worthy of a decent
percentage of that backfield, and Matt Nagy isn’t the type of coach to over emphasize
single players in his offense. The talent is there, but the opportunity is in
question.
Bell Cow Potential: 7/10
Miles Sanders (Penn State; Drafted by the Eagles 2nd
round) NFL Comparison – LeSean McCoy
I turned on Sander’s film and didn’t blink for an hour.
This guy is so much fun to watch because of how he runs. He reminds me a lot of
Shady McCoy and Leveon Bell in terms of his shiftiness, patient running, and
speed combinations he uses against all 3 levels of a defense. Much like Lev
Bell, he looks like he’s running half speed most of the time until he needs to burst
to hit a gap, cut past a defender, or setup his blocks. Here is a powerful
quote from a respected scouting website:
“Can drop his hips low and jump cut to anywhere the eye can see. Works unorthodox footwork and angles into surprising redirections that catch defenders out of position. Has super silky hips that allow him to weave and slice when working with clean runways to the second level…” https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/miles-sanders
If Sanders was a 2-3 year starter, and didn’t sit behind Saquon
Barkley at Penn State, he would be the top RB prospect out of this class. He
didn’t have a lot of receptions at Penn State, but he lined up in the slot and
ran a variety of routes. Some of his downfalls include a lack of power, lack of
a killer instinct (decision-making), slightly above average contact balance,
and poor pass protection. His lapses in decision-making usually manifest
themselves as 5+ yard losses for trying to do too much behind the line of
scrimmage. Offensive coordinators hate this, so he’ll have to learn to take what
is given to him in the NFL. The power and contact balance are largely due to
his size, but his vision, burst, and shiftiness easily compensate for that. As
for pass pro and killer instinct, I believe this is purely a result of limited
playing time as he was a one-year starter. Fortunately, pass protection and decision-making
can be developed with more reps.
Bell Cow Potential 8/10
He’s currently injured with a hamstring strain, and Doug
Pederson seems content with running Jordan Howard into the ground this year on
his one-year contract. I’d let this story develop further before going all in
on Sanders this year, but in dynasty he’s a must grab.
Justice Hill (Oklahoma State; Drafted by the Ravens 4th
round) NFL Comparison – Reggie Bush
That is correct; you read that right. This guy comps out to
Reggie Bush, and after watching the tape I’m buying it. Justice Hill had the fastest
official 40-yard dash time for a RB at the NFL draft with 4.40 (Darrell
Henderson had unofficial of 4.36 & 4.49 official). The Ravens continued to
add speed around Lamar Jackson with the Hill selection, and he should be the perfect
compliment to the bruiser backs of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. Hill could be
an absolute matchup nightmare on read-options, swings, draws, outside zone
runs, and screens. The hype train hasn’t quite caught on for Justice Hill yet, but
I guarantee that as the season approaches and the world sees him play in preseason
games, his ADP will spike tremendously. Justice Hill isn’t the type of running
back to command a 3-down role in the NFL, but he could have fantasy relevance regardless.
Although I’ve highlighted Hill’s speed, I don’t want to give the wrong
impression. Justice Hill is a complete RB who had back-to-back 1000-yard
rushing seasons at Oklahoma State, and has excellent technique, balance, and
vision. He can catch out of the backfield and he is good at pass protection for
his size. He is going to demand time on the field for the Ravens despite how
well Ingram plays. Hill is an explosive play-maker who I’m currently grabbing everywhere
I can, but with that being said, I don’t think he is bell cow material. The
Ravens won’t be giving him 15+ touches in their style of offense, but his
efficiency should allow him to produce with limited touches.
Bell Cow Potential 4/10
Conclusion:
I leave you with Justice Hill highlights as the conclusion
to get the hype train rolling!! DON'T SLEEP ON THIS MAN!
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